Saturday 28 July 2007

Here comes the weekend... But why do Saturday's traditionally offer such poor value for the punter? A few years ago I spawned a paranoid thought that it was set up this way as - no doubt - most of the betting on the horses goes on at the weekend. In any event both the Fancy Fillies (www.betfayre.co.uk) and - my own - Philosoper's stone system have thrown up two low-risk trades for this afternoon, one to lay and one to back. I like the automated nature of all of this.

Do you "bot"? There are a number of trading bots on the market at the moment (including of course our original Bismarx bot) and, if you do, do you find the bot helps your betting or hinders it? There's a lot a bot can do, but only if you tell it to. Come to that, how many traders/scalpers are there out there? My own view is that you need a pretty heftly bank to scap often miniscule margins off Betfair, but I know at least a handful of people who do this for a living.

When the racing stops, where do other fruitful betting opportunities lie?

I'll be looking at a number of products this weekend which have been developed to exploit opportunities in the new medium of Betfair games and "virtual" sports betting. One of these (following virtual soccer) looks particularly interesting and I will report back as soon as I've had a chance to test it out thoroughly.

On the other hand, most of the casino scalping system's I've looked at are none too clever. The idea of playing thousands of rounds of mind-numbingly tedious BlackJack or Roulette just to scoop some free casino chips does not personally appeal at all. And, knowing the random nature at least of the latter, I also suspect many of these systems could wipe you out as quickly as they could make any money. If I'm wrong, perhaps someone will let me know?

Conversely, playing sit-and-go tournaments on poker sites can yield profitable results. You don't need to be a wizard at odds either, since plenty of programs such as Texas Calculatem will do all the hard work for you. Programs such as this aren't joing to turn you into the next WSOP superstar but they can be very lucrative in low-limit S&G's. I seem to cash at least two thirds of the time, and I'm no poker expert believe me. Let me know if you use any poker programs and how you get on with them.

Thursday 26 July 2007

Well, I returned from sunny (really - it was for two whole days) Wales to face a monsoon on the M5, got shipwrecked overnight at Stratford - and then when I did make it home found that Google had decided this blog was "spam" and had temporarily disabled it. Ho hum, these things are sent to try us....

Everything's sorted out now so I'm back in the saddle again. Whilst I was away I still managed to follow both the Fabulous Fillies (www.betfayre.co.uk) and The Philosopher's Stone. Both behaved very well, proving that there is such a thing as a system you can use when away from the PC and don't have loads of time to make your selections. We had a little blip on the FF front with two horses doing the opposite of what they should have done, but this eventuality is all covered in the plan and in fact did little to raise the blood pressure.

Being a Thursday you'll find todays Bismarx selections over with Malcolm at HorseRacingSystemsUK.com. We have five today, and, as ever, expect an early result.

Tuesday 17 July 2007

Fancy Fillies hit a loser yesterday in the shape of ARTLESS at the 15.00 at Ayr, but this is only to be expected. My slight concern is that today's selection is in a four-horse race, in which the market would indicate there are really only two contenders. This is the classic "coin flip" scenario which I tend to generally avoid. However, I'll keep to the instructions and we'll just see what happens this afternoon.....

The PHILOSOPHERS STONE selection profited again yesterday when ADOPTED HERO cashed at Newton Abbott. Looking at the win/lose ratio since 9th July we've got WWLWLWLWW so no nasty losing runs there, and allied with the prudent staking plan I'm using this is proving to be very profitable indeed....

No more from me on the blog until next weekend as I'm off for a break in darkest Wales. Always important to get a little time out when possible and I'm looking forward to a decent pint by an inglenook fireplace looking out over rolling hills and wheeling Red Kite's.... yes,very nice indeed.

Sunday 15 July 2007

Since last I posted with details of Nova's new racing system every one of their selections has profited. Yesterday BAFFLED at Ascot brought the money in, and today at the 14.00 at Warwick SOLIYA cashed in. Very impressive indeed. Think I'll be using this one on a regular basis. Again, those details are at:

www.betfayre.co.uk

I've had a good few bets since last Thursday, both back and lay. Watch out for something pretty exciting I'm working on right now, provisionally called THE PHILOSOPHER'S STONE. It's a backing system (Jim) but not as we know it..... For an early clue as to what this is all about TICKATEAL was the moneymaker at the 1440 at Perth this afternoon, on Friday it was DECLARATION OF WAR at the 1400 at Newmarket who gave cause for celebration. Any guesses as to what links these horses or bet type? More of this as I continue to plough through stats and really put this one through its paces.....

Thursday 12 July 2007

Just goes to show. The market looked queasy and the Betfair charts were going the wrong way, so all my form analysis of MONT ETOILE in the morning came to nowt. The lesson is never get wedded to a selection, no matter how strong he (or she) may appear at forecast prices....

And speaking of females (was I? just looking for a link, really). Are they as predictable as the male of the species? (oh dear, what can of worms have I opened now......).

"This is it! This is definitely the crock of gold at the end of the rainbow. It is the system I have been looking for all my life!

What an amazing piece of trend research which has produced the most consistent and constant system I have ever tested.

I fully endorse this system as the most consistent and worry-free system ever.

Discover the secret by reading the book, put your stake on in the morning and leave it. No worries, no stress, it wins consistently and steadily.

Best way I have discovered to make a good living from so little time."

(S.Edwards, Lancaster.)

The above testmonial refers to the sytem I've been checking out for the last few weeks from Nova publications, and I can report it performs like a corker.

I made a decent profit in a couple of weeks, you might do too. Check it out at:

www.betfayre.co.uk

(yes that's with a "y", "this product is not licensed by nor endorsed by", yadda yadda......)

Btw I haven't been posting to Malcolm at HorseRacingSystems for a few weeks due to technical hitches. But now, I've not just broadband, but wireless bb no less! Is there no end to the marvels of new technology?...... (rhetorical question)........

Wednesday 11 July 2007

A possible punt at Newmarket

I've been looking through the cards today to see if there's anything I fancy (other than the usual Bismarx that is, of which there are a comfortable five today. I'll let the bot take care of those).
One race or another invariably stands out for various reasons, very often subliminal. The race I'm looking at today is the 3.45 at Newmarket, which is a Group 2 contest for fillies and mares running over 1m 4f. Ladies can be unpredictable and there's not a lot of market support this morning for the f/cast fave MONT ETOILE although ten tipsters go with her. She run a good race last time out in Class 1 company and 1 mile seemed too short for her to get into her stride. The going was GF last time out, wheras Newmarket is currently Good, which means a tad more yielding. So this is by no means a foregone conclusion and I'll wait to look at the market before the off. If encouraging a place on Betfair offers an 80% ROI - not bad value considering. Let's see what happens....

Monday 9 July 2007

Soapbox moment.....

Well, I had an email from someone today claiming no racing systems ever work as he's tried them all and they're all cr*p. Certainly something of a generalisation, I'm sure you'll agree, but it make me put my thinking cap on. I review a plethora of systems every week and I know some really are "the business" and some, frankly, aren't worth the paper (electronic or otherwise) they're written on. So, why the negativity from this guy?

I'm reminded of a story I read by "positive thinking" guru Randy Gage. It was something to do with selling deck chairs on The Titanic. If you gave some folk a bar of gold they'd complain it was too heavy. Some people can't help themselves, even when they are given the tools to do so.

I'm convinced this is a mind issue, not a money issue. For goodness sakes, what if one of these systems actually started to work? What if I could break out of the rut (no excuses now) and work towards giving up a job I loathe, what would I do then? What would I tell the wife, the kids, the bank manager, my parents? What would happen if my comfort zone got busted?

If I sound harsh, I can afford too. Poor health and poor circumstances (I'm not blaming either) forced me to break out of my mould about five years ago. And, although it can be a rollercoaster sometimes, I know I wouldn't have it any other way....

I had two nice winners today, but would I be whinging on if they lost? Not really, because I see this as a sequence, part of a strategy, taking the rough with the smooth.... It's not for all, and its more about discipline and focus than adrenaline (despite the media hype).

Get this: no-one, not the bookies, not the government, not the guy selling you a system really cares if you win or lose. In this game, it's up to you. The tools are there and the opportunities vastly superior to those that were around in my uncle's day...

So, rather than bash a bookie (or a system publisher) ask yourself if you can make it work.

Only you can know the answer to that question.

Saturday 7 July 2007

Here comes the weekend, not that that makes much difference to me. Saturday promises to be the usual cavalcade of betting and computer repair work. You'd have thought Broadband would have made my life easier, but it's taken so much fiddling about with I have even less hair now than I did to start off with....

No matter. I told you about a new system developed by my pals at Nova Publications, Dennis and Hazel. He's a maths genius (like me - only kidding) and she rides horses for a living, so they make an ideal team. During the last week this system performed spectacularly. Too early to say we've found the philosophers stone but it does look very exciting indeed. Watch out for more on this one soon....

Speaking of systems I've sold the rights to our "10 minute system" which you can now find for sale on Ebay. Not sure what they're calling it but, hint, do a search for "betfair basher" or similar and you'll find it on there for a (current) pathetic 49p!!

Time for me to have a look at the afternoons windswept (and sodden) race cards....

More from yours truly later.....

Wednesday 4 July 2007

Wednesday 4th July

Just a quickie today....

Is there any truth in the adage that a racing system that can't profit to level stakes won't work at all? I'm personally doubtful about this, but of course, in this business, everything depends on your tolerance of risk and your desire for reward. Some staking plans are plainly suicidal. Others involve a degree of risk but clearly do work in the long term. So, my question is when does a staking plan become nothing more than "chasing losers"? I think the answer to this question contains the true secret of gambling (investing?) success. More on these musings at a later date...

Btw, I haven't been posting so many of my days selections as I've been hard at work on the new "Private Box" service which is getting ready to launch. More info on this too, soon.....

Monday 2 July 2007

Monday 2nd July

No, I haven't died and gone to horsey heaven (yet). Well, I said it might be an "occasional" blog and for good reason. Not having a phone line for a week has given me a mountain of work to catch up on and hasn't exactly swelled the coffers either. Sleeves now rolled up it's time to get stuck in once again (point of fact not only is the phone line on, so is Broadband. At last! I don't know how I ever managed without it before....)

I know I've been banging on about EVO but there really are just 14 more days to get into this groundfloor opp, so it's well worth signing up at www.theprospector.com if you haven't already.

I'm looking at an intriguing new racing system this week which looks very promising, and I'll tell you more about it here soon (very easy to implement and the results in testing look nothing short of spectacular)....

Meanwhile I'm still backing (and dutching) horses galore using John Duncan's Cherry Picker system (www.betdaw.co.uk) to profitable effect. It's nice to know there a few really solid products doing the rounds which really do live up to the hype after all. More soon......