Christmas is coming and I am getting fat. At least that's my excuse. It seems to happen every year and last about 12 months.....

So why so quiet of late? It's not my intention to post here unless there's something to say or something really worth looking at.

So, am I saying there have been no new racing systems on the market since October? Certainly not. In fact there's been a glut of them - many coming from the same stable. You'll probably know the one. A template driven sales pitch selling in essence the same system (involving Betfair) by a hundred different names - and most at £37. The problem with all this is that it simply discredits the industry and leads to more cynicism about racing systems. Although I hate to say it - like plot lines - there are probably only 7 or so original systems in existence, after all we can only back, lay, or trade any race. How many other permutations are there?

My dalliance in the world of poker and FX trading leads me to conclude that - whilst we are all seeking the "holy grail" of systems the fact of the matter is that as speculators (gamblers maybe?) all we can hope for is a way to maximise the upside and minimise the risk to capital. And that's the all of it in a nutshell.

All systems will have upswings and downturns - it's the nature of the best. What fascinates me is the point at which "luck" interfaces with probability. For instance, since trading profits and losses invariably run in cycles we should not forget the importance of retracement in our betting bank. What does this mean? Simply, that if we're in a down trend we should not necessarily automatically "jump ship". Often the tide will turn at precisely that very point. You see this all the time in poker and on the currency markets. I'm sure this happens trading the nags as well.

Is it luck, is it probability, is it random chaos? Who knows. But we should always endeavour to see the bigger picture and remember - the war's not over til the last battle is fought.

More from me later after I've scoffed a few more mince pies.....